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Torino vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Torino
Torino
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AS Roma
AS Roma
A. Saelemaekers 53'
L. Paredes 18' (pen)
5/25/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 38Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Torino32%
×Draw26%
AS Roma41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino
1.19
AS Roma
1.38

AS Roma creates 16% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 36 away

creates per match

Torino
1.17
AS Roma
1.38

allows per match

Torino
1.38
AS Roma
1.20

finishing

Torino-0.15scores less
AS Roma-0.16scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torino or draw
59%
Torino or AS Roma
74%
Draw or AS Roma
68%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+
13%
AS Roma wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals
70%
Torino 2+ goals
33%
Torino 3+ goals
12%
AS Roma 1+ goals
75%
AS Roma 2+ goals
40%
AS Roma 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)
44%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.20 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.17 + AS Roma defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

AS Roma attack 1.38 + Torino defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torino scores more
32%
level
26%
AS Roma scores more
41%

AS Roma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
M. SvilarAS RomaAS Roma · G
7.9

Match Events

18'
L. ParedesPenalty
53'
A. Saelemaekers↳ M. Soulé
59'
G. Gineitis← C. Casadei
59'
S. Perciun← A. Dembélé
63'
Guillermo Maripán
72'
S. Walukiewicz← A. Masina
72'
K. Linetty← S. Ricci
72'
S. El Shaarawy← E. Shomurodov
75'
Zeki Çelik
81'
T. Gabellini← E. Elmas
85'
Bryan CristanteGoal cancelled
90'
D. Rensch← M. Soulé
90'
M. Hummels← Z. Çelik
90'
T. Baldanzi← L. Paredes
90+1'
N. Pisilli← A. Saelemaekers

Possession

46%Torino

Shots

11Torino

Pass accuracy

50%Torino

Statistics

TorinoAS
Overview
46%Possession54%
11Total Shots15
0.47Expected Goals (xG)1.95
2Corners1
15Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots15
4On Target5
3Off Target8
4Blocked2
5Inside Box11
6Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
418Total Passes501
372Accurate Passes450
89%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
0.29Goals Prevented0.29
Discipline
15Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Serie A: Torino 0–2 AS Roma

AS Roma beat Torino 2-0 in Serie A on May 25, 2025.

Goals: L. Paredes (18' pen), A. Saelemaekers (53').

AS Roma controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino.