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AS Roma vs Torino — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torino
Torino
P. Dybala 20'
10/31/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 10Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

AS Roma46%
×Draw28%
Torino26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.33
Torino
0.93

AS Roma creates 43% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 39 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.43
Torino
0.97

allows per match

AS Roma
0.89
Torino
1.23

finishing

AS Roma+0.32scores more
Torino+0.08on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Torino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
74%
AS Roma or Torino
72%
Draw or Torino
54%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
21%
Torino wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
74%
AS Roma 2+ goals
38%
AS Roma 3+ goals
15%
Torino 1+ goals
61%
Torino 2+ goals
24%
Torino 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
64%
Torino (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Torino away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.43 + Torino defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Torino attack 0.97 + AS Roma defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AS Roma scores more
46%
level
28%
Torino scores more
26%

AS Roma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
P. DybalaAS RomaAS Roma · F
8.5

Match Events

20'
P. Dybala
46'
A. Njie← G. Gineitis
59'
N. Vlašić← A. Sanabria
59'
M. Pedersen← G. Maripán
65'
L. Pellegrini← N. Pisilli
71'
Saul Coco
72'
Tommaso Baldanzi
78'
E. Shomurodov← P. Dybala
79'
S. El Shaarawy← N. Zalewski
79'
B. Cristante← T. Baldanzi
79'
Y. Karamoh← K. Linetty
86'
Adam Masina
88'
A. Tamèze← M. Vojvoda
90+2'
Lorenzo Pellegrini

Possession

57%AS

Shots

9AS

Pass accuracy

52%AS

Statistics

ASTorino
Overview
57%Possession43%
9Total Shots4
0.63Expected Goals (xG)0.21
3Corners5
11Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots4
3On Target2
1Off Target0
5Blocked2
4Inside Box3
5Outside Box1
Passing
57%Possession43%
578Total Passes427
507Accurate Passes343
88%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26
Discipline
11Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Serie A: AS Roma 1–0 Torino

AS Roma beat Torino 1-0 in Serie A on October 31, 2024.

Goals: P. Dybala (20').

AS Roma controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.