Tondela 2–0 Portimonense: Result & Stats

Tondela

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Portimonense

Roberto 32', 22' (pen)

12/15/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 14Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Tondela45%

×Draw27%

Portimonense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TondelaExpected goals in this matchPortimonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.06

Tondela

1.41

Portimonense

1.06

Tondela creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 40 away

1.33

creates per match

0.97

1.16

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Tondela

1.33

Portimonense

0.97

allows per match

Tondela

1.16

Portimonense

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par

Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Portimonense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tondela or draw

72%

Tondela or Portimonense

73%

Draw or Portimonense

55%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+

22%

Portimonense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals

76%

Tondela 2+ goals

41%

Tondela 3+ goals

17%

Portimonense 1+ goals

65%

Portimonense 2+ goals

29%

Portimonense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)

61%

Portimonense (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.33 + Portimonense defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Portimonense attack 0.97 + Tondela defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tondela scores more

45%

level

27%

Portimonense scores more

28%

Tondela at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

RobertoPenalty

32'

Roberto

38'

Chico Banza

39'

Paulo Vitor← Teo Fernandes

39'

Jefferson← Diogo Ferreira

46'

C. Durán← Chico Banza

59'

Hélder Tavares

63'

João Afonso

65'

Nuno Cunha← Hélder Tavares

70'

Miro← Roberto

72'

Emmanuel Maviram

75'

Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes

78'

Jordi Pola← Pedro Maranhão

78'

Talocha← Costinha

78'

Rodrigo Ramos← E. Maviram

81'

Kim Yong-Hak← Alemão

88'

Paulo Vitor

Shots

Statistics

TondelaPortimonense

Overview

2Total Shots0

2Fouls0

Shots

2Total Shots0

2On Target0

Discipline

2Fouls0