Portimonense 2–2 Tondela: Result & Stats

Portimonense

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tondela

C. Durán 72'

Paulo Vitor 46'

M. Ouattara 90+6'

Miro 23'

4/27/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 31Estádio Municipal de Portimão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Portimonense35%

×Draw27%

Tondela38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortimonenseExpected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.32

Portimonense

1.25

Tondela

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 51 away

1.44

creates per match

1.39

1.26

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Portimonense

1.44

Tondela

1.39

allows per match

Portimonense

1.26

Tondela

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portimonense+0.00on par

Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense ↓

Tondela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portimonense or draw

62%

Portimonense or Tondela

73%

Draw or Tondela

65%

Winning margin

Portimonense wins by 2+

15%

Tondela wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Portimonense 1+ goals

71%

Portimonense 2+ goals

36%

Portimonense 3+ goals

13%

Tondela 1+ goals

73%

Tondela 2+ goals

38%

Tondela 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Portimonense (draw refunded)

48%

Tondela (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.26 · 39 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense attack 1.44 + Tondela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tondela attack 1.39 + Portimonense defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Portimonense scores more

35%

level

27%

Tondela scores more

38%

Tondela at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Costinha

Tondela · F

7.9

Match Events

-5'

23'

29'

39'

46'

60'

E. Maviram← Nuno Cunha

60'

M. Ouattara← Cícero

67'

Jefferson← Douglas Grolli

67'

E. Benedict← Tamble Monteiro

70'

Roberto← Tiago Manso

72'

C. Durán

73'

Heitor

75'

M. Moyo← Ruan

81'

Hélder Tavares← João Afonso

81'

Pedro Maranhão← Talocha

83'

Danio Djassi← Paulo Vitor

90+6'

M. Ouattara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortimonenseTondela

Overview

43%Possession57%

19Total Shots19

4Corners7

15Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots19

6On Target6

9Off Target8

4Blocked5

9Inside Box13

10Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

309Total Passes404

236Accurate Passes307

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Segunda Liga: Portimonense 2–2 Tondela

Portimonense and Tondela drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on April 27, 2025.

Goals: Miro (23'), Paulo Vitor (46'), C. Durán (72'), M. Ouattara (90+6').

Tondela controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Portimão.

Portimonense vs Tondela — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda Liga: Portimonense 2–2 Tondela