Tondela 0–3 Portimonense: Result & Stats

Tondela

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Portimonense

Fali Candé 80'

Aylton Boa Morte 45+1' (pen)

Beto 35'

8/22/2021

Primeira Liga · Round 3Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Tondela40%

×Draw26%

Portimonense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TondelaExpected goals in this matchPortimonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.23

Tondela

1.35

Portimonense

1.23

Tondela creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.10

creates per match

0.92

1.54

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Tondela

1.10

Portimonense

0.92

allows per match

Tondela

1.54

Portimonense

1.59

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Tondela-0.43scores less

Portimonense+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Portimonense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tondela or draw

66%

Tondela or Portimonense

74%

Draw or Portimonense

60%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+

18%

Portimonense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals

74%

Tondela 2+ goals

39%

Tondela 3+ goals

15%

Portimonense 1+ goals

71%

Portimonense 2+ goals

35%

Portimonense 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)

54%

Portimonense (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.59 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.10 + Portimonense defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Portimonense attack 0.92 + Tondela defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tondela scores more

40%

level

26%

Portimonense scores more

34%

Tondela at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Aylton Boa Morte

Portimonense · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

Willyan Rocha

11'

Daniel dos Anjos

17'

João Pedro

35'

Beto↳ Willyan

44'

Lucas FernandesPenalty awarded

45+1'

Aylton Boa MortePenalty

48'

Lucas Possignolo

59'

Pedro Sá← Carlinhos

60'

Lucas Fernandes

63'

Iker Undabarrena← Tiago Dantas

63'

Ricardo Alves← Eduardo Quaresma

74'

Neto Borges← N. Khacef

74'

Telmo Arcanjo← J. Murillo

77'

Luquinhas← Anderson Oliveira

77'

Filipe Relvas← Lucas Fernandes

78'

Ricardo Alves

79'

R. Dadaşov← Rafael Barbosa

80'

Fali Candé

87'

Samuel

88'

I. Angulo← Fali Candé

89'

Renato Júnior← Beto

90+1'

Telmo Arcanjo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TondelaPortimonense

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots7

6Corners5

15Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target5

5Off Target1

3Blocked1

4Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

457Total Passes296

390Accurate Passes234

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls17

4Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2