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Tombense vs Ponte Preta — Serie B 2018

Tombense
Tombense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta
10/15/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 35Estádio Soares de Azevedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tombense45%
×Draw29%
Ponte Preta25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.24
Ponte Preta
0.85

Tombense creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 141 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.24
Ponte Preta
0.81

allows per match

Tombense
0.89
Ponte Preta
1.24

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Ponte Preta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
75%
Tombense or Ponte Preta
71%
Draw or Ponte Preta
55%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
20%
Ponte Preta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
71%
Tombense 2+ goals
35%
Tombense 3+ goals
13%
Ponte Preta 1+ goals
57%
Ponte Preta 2+ goals
21%
Ponte Preta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
64%
Ponte Preta (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.24 + Ponte Preta defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ponte Preta attack 0.81 + Tombense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tombense scores more
45%
level
29%
Ponte Preta scores more
25%

Tombense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tombense vs Ponte Preta

Tombense and Ponte Preta drew 0-0 in Serie B on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Soares de Azevedo in Muriaé, Minas Gerais.