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Ponte Preta vs Tombense — Serie B 2018

Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
7/15/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 17Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ponte Preta50%
×Draw27%
Tombense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta
1.42
Tombense
0.87

Ponte Preta creates 63% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta
1.18
Tombense
0.74

allows per match

Ponte Preta
1.00
Tombense
1.66

finishing

Ponte Preta+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw
77%
Ponte Preta or Tombense
73%
Draw or Tombense
50%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+
25%
Tombense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals
76%
Ponte Preta 2+ goals
41%
Ponte Preta 3+ goals
17%
Tombense 1+ goals
58%
Tombense 2+ goals
22%
Tombense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)
68%
Tombense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 142 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.18 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tombense attack 0.74 + Ponte Preta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ponte Preta scores more
50%
level
27%
Tombense scores more
23%

Ponte Preta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Ponte Preta 0–1 Tombense

Tombense beat Ponte Preta 1-0 in Serie B on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Moisés Lucarelli in Campinas, São Paulo.