Ponte Preta 1–0 Tombense: Result & Stats | Serie C

Ponte Preta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tombense

7/7/2025

Serie C · Round 11Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ponte Preta49%

×Draw30%

Tombense20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte PretaExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.66

Ponte Preta

1.21

Tombense

0.66

Ponte Preta creates 83% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 59 away

1.14

creates per match

0.75

0.57

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Ponte Preta

1.14

Tombense

0.75

allows per match

Ponte Preta

0.57

Tombense

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw

80%

Ponte Preta or Tombense

70%

Draw or Tombense

51%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

22%

Tombense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

70%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

34%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

12%

Tombense 1+ goals

48%

Tombense 2+ goals

14%

Tombense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

71%

Tombense (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.14 + Tombense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tombense attack 0.75 + Ponte Preta defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ponte Preta scores more

49%

level

30%

Tombense scores more

20%

Ponte Preta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff