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Tombense vs Guarani Campinas — Serie C 2018

Tombense
Tombense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
8/30/2025Serie CSerie C · Round 19Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tombense42%
×Draw27%
Guarani Campinas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.35
Guarani Campinas
1.11

Tombense creates 22% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.32
Guarani Campinas
1.42

allows per match

Tombense
0.80
Guarani Campinas
1.37

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Guarani Campinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
69%
Tombense or Guarani Campinas
73%
Draw or Guarani Campinas
58%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
20%
Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
74%
Tombense 2+ goals
39%
Tombense 3+ goals
15%
Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
67%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
30%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
58%
Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.32 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Guarani Campinas attack 1.42 + Tombense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tombense scores more
42%
level
27%
Guarani Campinas scores more
31%

Tombense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tombense vs Guarani Campinas

Tombense and Guarani Campinas drew 2-2 in Serie C on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida in Tombos.