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Guarani Campinas vs Tombense — Serie B 2018

Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
8/27/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 26Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Guarani Campinas52%
×Draw27%
Tombense21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani Campinas
1.43
Tombense
0.81

Guarani Campinas creates 77% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 38 away

creates per match

Guarani Campinas
1.20
Tombense
0.74

allows per match

Guarani Campinas
0.88
Tombense
1.66

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw
79%
Guarani Campinas or Tombense
73%
Draw or Tombense
48%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
26%
Tombense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
76%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
42%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
17%
Tombense 1+ goals
56%
Tombense 2+ goals
19%
Tombense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
71%
Tombense (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.88 · 133 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.20 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tombense attack 0.74 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more
52%
level
27%
Tombense scores more
21%

Guarani Campinas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Guarani Campinas 2–1 Tombense

Guarani Campinas beat Tombense 2-1 in Serie B on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas, São Paulo.