Tombense 1–1 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats

Tombense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Guarani Campinas

5/14/2022

Serie B · Round 7Estádio Soares de Azevedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tombense45%

×Draw29%

Guarani Campinas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.88

Tombense

1.26

Guarani Campinas

0.88

Tombense creates 43% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 133 away

1.24

creates per match

0.86

0.89

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Tombense

1.24

Guarani Campinas

0.86

allows per match

Tombense

0.89

Guarani Campinas

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

74%

Tombense or Guarani Campinas

71%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

55%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

20%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

72%

Tombense 2+ goals

36%

Tombense 3+ goals

13%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

59%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

22%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

64%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.28 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.24 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.26

Guarani Campinas attack 0.86 + Tombense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tombense scores more

45%

level

29%

Guarani Campinas scores more

26%

Tombense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff