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Tombense vs America Mineiro — Copa Sul-Sudeste 2026

Tombense
Tombense
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
4/9/2026Copa Sul-SudesteCopa Sul-Sudeste · Group Stage - 3Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tombense46%
×Draw20%
America Mineiro34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
2.33
America Mineiro
2.00

Tombense creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tombense
2.67
America Mineiro
1.67

allows per match

Tombense
2.33
America Mineiro
2.00

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
66%
Tombense or America Mineiro
80%
Draw or America Mineiro
54%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
27%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
90%
Tombense 2+ goals
67%
Tombense 3+ goals
41%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
86%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
59%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
57%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 2.67 + America Mineiro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

America Mineiro attack 1.67 + Tombense defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tombense scores more
46%
level
20%
America Mineiro scores more
34%

Tombense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tombense vs America Mineiro

Tombense and America Mineiro drew 3-3 in Copa Sul-Sudeste on April 9, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida in Tombos.