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Tombense vs America Mineiro — Mineiro - 1 2020

Tombense
Tombense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
2/8/2025Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Tombense38%
×Draw29%
America Mineiro33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.19
America Mineiro
1.08

Tombense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 43 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.44
America Mineiro
1.35

allows per match

Tombense
0.80
America Mineiro
0.95

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
67%
Tombense or America Mineiro
71%
Draw or America Mineiro
62%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
16%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
70%
Tombense 2+ goals
33%
Tombense 3+ goals
12%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
66%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
29%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
54%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 41 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.44 + America Mineiro defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

America Mineiro attack 1.35 + Tombense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tombense scores more
38%
level
29%
America Mineiro scores more
33%

Tombense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tombense vs America Mineiro

Tombense beat America Mineiro 1-0 in Mineiro - 1 on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida in Tombos, Minas Gerais.