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America Mineiro vs Tombense — Mineiro - 1 2020

America Mineiro
America Mineiro
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
3/4/2023Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

America Mineiro49%
×Draw27%
Tombense24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America Mineiro
1.42
Tombense
0.91

America Mineiro creates 56% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 42 away

creates per match

America Mineiro
1.63
Tombense
1.12

allows per match

America Mineiro
0.70
Tombense
1.21

finishing

America Mineiro+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw
76%
America Mineiro or Tombense
73%
Draw or Tombense
51%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+
24%
Tombense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals
76%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
41%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
17%
Tombense 1+ goals
60%
Tombense 2+ goals
23%
Tombense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)
67%
Tombense (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

Tombense away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.63 + Tombense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tombense attack 1.12 + America Mineiro defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

America Mineiro scores more
49%
level
27%
Tombense scores more
24%

America Mineiro at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America Mineiro vs Tombense

America Mineiro beat Tombense 3-1 in Mineiro - 1 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.