Toluca 0–2 Monarcas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Toluca

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Monarcas

F. Aristeguieta 74'

L. Mendoza 72'

9/15/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Toluca50%

×Draw23%

Monarcas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolucaExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.27

Toluca

1.79

Monarcas

1.27

Toluca creates 41% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 47 away

2.05

creates per match

1.34

1.19

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Toluca

2.05

Monarcas

1.34

allows per match

Toluca

1.19

Monarcas

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Toluca or draw

73%

Toluca or Monarcas

77%

Draw or Monarcas

50%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+

27%

Monarcas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals

83%

Toluca 2+ goals

53%

Toluca 3+ goals

26%

Monarcas 1+ goals

72%

Monarcas 2+ goals

36%

Monarcas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)

65%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.19 · 154 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.05 + Monarcas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.79

Monarcas attack 1.34 + Toluca defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Toluca scores more

50%

level

23%

Monarcas scores more

27%

Toluca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

L. Mendoza

Monarcas · M

7.9

Match Events

46'

F. Pardo← K. Castañeda

63'

A. Ríos← F. Mancuello

65'

É. Flores← M. Sansores

71'

G. Lezcano← C. Ramírez

72'

L. Mendoza↳ É. Flores

74'

A. Canelo← R. Ruíz

74'

F. Aristeguieta↳ É. Flores

83'

M. Osuna← A. Rocha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TolucaMonarcas

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots6

3Corners0

14Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots6

2On Target3

9Off Target3

4Blocked0

5Inside Box4

10Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

398Total Passes395

342Accurate Passes329

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Offsides0