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Monarcas vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026

Monarcas
Monarcas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Toluca
Toluca
R. Sandoval 16'
E. Triverio 75', 43', 19'
1/5/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Monarcas40%
×Draw25%
Toluca34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.46
Toluca
1.33

Monarcas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 153 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.40
Toluca
1.25

allows per match

Monarcas
1.42
Toluca
1.52

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
66%
Monarcas or Toluca
75%
Draw or Toluca
60%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
19%
Toluca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
77%
Monarcas 2+ goals
43%
Monarcas 3+ goals
18%
Toluca 1+ goals
74%
Toluca 2+ goals
38%
Toluca 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
54%
Toluca (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.42 · 48 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.52 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.40 + Toluca defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Toluca attack 1.25 + Monarcas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Monarcas scores more
40%
level
25%
Toluca scores more
34%

Monarcas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
E. TriverioTolucaToluca · F
9.4

Match Events

10'
R. Sandoval← C. Morales
16'
R. Sandoval↳ M. Sansores
19'
E. Triverio↳ A. Mora
35'
Richard Ruiz
43'
E. Triverio
49'
Santiago García
68'
I. Ávila← R. Millar
72'
C. Esquivel← L. Mendoza
73'
Jesus Gonzalez
75'
R. Vilchis← J. González
75'
E. Triverio↳ P. Barrientos
82'
C. Borja← R. Ruíz
84'
Aldo Rocha
89'
A. Medina← A. Canelo

Possession

60%Monarcas

Shots

13Monarcas

Pass accuracy

52%Monarcas

Statistics

MonarcasToluca
Overview
60%Possession40%
13Total Shots22
8Corners5
13Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots22
4On Target6
5Off Target12
4Blocked4
8Inside Box17
5Outside Box5
Passing
60%Possession40%
462Total Passes300
393Accurate Passes237
85%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Monarcas vs Toluca

Toluca beat Monarcas 3-1 in Liga MX on January 5, 2019.

Goals: R. Sandoval (16'), E. Triverio (19', 43', 75').

Monarcas controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 22.

The match was played at Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon in Morelia.