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Toluca vs Monarcas — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Monarcas
Monarcas
R. Sambueza 90+1'
A. Canelo 47'
7/22/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Nemesio Diez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Toluca49%
×Draw23%
Monarcas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.78
Monarcas
1.27

Toluca creates 40% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 40 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
Monarcas
1.35

allows per match

Toluca
1.19
Monarcas
1.50

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Monarcas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
73%
Toluca or Monarcas
77%
Draw or Monarcas
51%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
27%
Monarcas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
83%
Toluca 2+ goals
53%
Toluca 3+ goals
26%
Monarcas 1+ goals
72%
Monarcas 2+ goals
36%
Monarcas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
64%
Monarcas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.19 · 150 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Monarcas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.78

Monarcas attack 1.35 + Toluca defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Toluca scores more
49%
level
23%
Monarcas scores more
27%

Toluca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. TalaveraTolucaToluca · G
7.7

Match Events

8'
William da Silva
12'
Emanuel Loeschbor
21'
Aldo Rocha
47'
A. Canelo↳ E. Vega
49'
Aldo Rocha
49'
Aldo Rocha
58'
R. Meraz← C. Fierro
65'
A. Domínguez← William da Silva
65'
G. Lezcano← R. Sandoval
74'
K. Castañeda← A. Canelo
74'
M. Sansores← R. Millar
84'
A. Escoto← L. Quiñónes
90'
Gastón Lezcano
90'
Sebastián Sosa
90+1'
R. Sambueza↳ A. Talavera

Possession

52%Toluca

Shots

18Toluca

Pass accuracy

50%Toluca

Statistics

TolucaMonarcas
Overview
52%Possession48%
18Total Shots5
10Corners4
16Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots5
6On Target1
7Off Target3
5Blocked1
7Inside Box1
11Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
330Total Passes291
269Accurate Passes239
82%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls14
1Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Toluca vs Monarcas

Toluca beat Monarcas 2-0 in Liga MX on July 22, 2018.

Goals: A. Canelo (47'), R. Sambueza (90+1').

Toluca controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Diez in Toluca.