Toluca 0–1 Monarcas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Toluca

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Monarcas

D. Valdés 58'

10/29/2017

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Nemesio Diez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Toluca51%

×Draw23%

Monarcas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolucaExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.23

Toluca

1.80

Monarcas

1.23

Toluca creates 46% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 50 away

2.05

creates per match

1.28

1.19

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Toluca

2.05

Monarcas

1.28

allows per match

Toluca

1.19

Monarcas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Toluca or draw

74%

Toluca or Monarcas

77%

Draw or Monarcas

49%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+

28%

Monarcas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals

83%

Toluca 2+ goals

54%

Toluca 3+ goals

27%

Monarcas 1+ goals

71%

Monarcas 2+ goals

35%

Monarcas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)

66%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.19 · 154 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.05 + Monarcas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.80

Monarcas attack 1.28 + Toluca defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Toluca scores more

51%

level

23%

Monarcas scores more

26%

Toluca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

S. Sosa

Monarcas · G

8.5

Match Events

41'

Jesús Méndez

55'

R. Sambueza← A. Canelo

58'

D. Valdés↳ R. Millar

70'

M. Abundis← J. Méndez

72'

A. Rocha← R. Millar

72'

G. Lezcano← R. Vilchis

84'

J. Rodríguez← D. Valdés

86'

86'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TolucaMonarcas

Overview

61%Possession39%

25Total Shots17

10Corners2

13Fouls12

Shots

25Total Shots17

6On Target4

12Off Target5

7Blocked8

18Inside Box10

7Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

475Total Passes297

397Accurate Passes226

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1