Toluca 2–2 Monarcas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Toluca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Monarcas

F. Uribe 90'

E. Triverio 32'

D. Cabrera 65'

P. Da Silva 19' (OG)

8/28/2016

Liga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Alberto Chivo Cordoba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Toluca51%

×Draw23%

Monarcas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolucaExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.23

Toluca

1.80

Monarcas

1.23

Toluca creates 46% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 50 away

2.05

creates per match

1.28

1.19

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Toluca

2.05

Monarcas

1.28

allows per match

Toluca

1.19

Monarcas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Toluca or draw

74%

Toluca or Monarcas

77%

Draw or Monarcas

49%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+

28%

Monarcas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals

83%

Toluca 2+ goals

54%

Toluca 3+ goals

27%

Monarcas 1+ goals

71%

Monarcas 2+ goals

35%

Monarcas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)

66%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.19 · 154 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.05 + Monarcas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.80

Monarcas attack 1.28 + Toluca defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Toluca scores more

51%

level

23%

Monarcas scores more

26%

Toluca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

E. Trejo

Toluca · M

8.0

Match Events

19'

P. Da SilvaOwn goal

24'

Gerardo Flores

32'

E. Triverio

45'

Enrique Triverio

46'

F. Uribe← E. Vega

54'

J. Zárate← I. González

58'

Carlos Morales

61'

R. Gómez← P. Barrientos

63'

D. Cabrera← D. Valdés

65'

D. Cabrera

76'

Sinha← G. Flores

78'

Paulo Da Silva

79'

E. Loeschbor← J. Zárate

83'

Carlos Rodriguez

90'

F. Uribe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TolucaMonarcas

Overview

47%Possession53%

20Total Shots13

6Corners3

13Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots13

5On Target4

11Off Target5

4Blocked4

13Inside Box7

7Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

435Total Passes509

369Accurate Passes435

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2