Toluca 2–1 Guadalajara Chivas: Result & Stats

Toluca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Guadalajara Chivas

H. Camberos 90+1' (OG)

A. Vega 34'

H. Camberos 70'

2/16/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Toluca48%

×Draw24%

Guadalajara Chivas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolucaExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.18

Toluca

1.65

Guadalajara Chivas

1.18

Toluca creates 40% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 146 away

2.07

creates per match

1.18

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Toluca

2.07

Guadalajara Chivas

1.18

allows per match

Toluca

1.18

Guadalajara Chivas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Toluca or draw

73%

Toluca or Guadalajara Chivas

76%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

52%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+

25%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals

81%

Toluca 2+ goals

49%

Toluca 3+ goals

23%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

69%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

33%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)

64%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.65

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Toluca scores more

48%

level

24%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

27%

Toluca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

B. García

Toluca · D

7.9

Match Events

34'

A. Vega

46'

M. Chávez← L. Rey

57'

H. Camberos← Y. Padilla

57'

A. González← A. Pulido

60'

I. Violante← R. Morales

61'

Helinho← Jesús Ricardo Angulo

70'

H. Camberos↳ R. Alvarado

79'

H. Herrera← Franco Romero

79'

I. López← J. Gallardo

85'

A. Briseño← A. Vega

90+2'

Luan Garcia

90'

I. Brizuela← A. Mozo

90'

R. González← R. Alvarado

90+1'

H. CamberosOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TolucaGuadalajara

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots8

5Corners5

14Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots8

8On Target3

3Off Target2

5Blocked3

5Inside Box4

11Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

623Total Passes411

548Accurate Passes338

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides4

Liga MX: Toluca 2–1 Guadalajara Chivas

Toluca beat Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 in Liga MX on February 16, 2025.

Goals: A. Vega (34'), H. Camberos (70', 90+1' o.g.).

Toluca controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca de Lerdo.

Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Toluca 2–1 Guadalajara Chivas