Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca — Liga MX 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 147+ matches
Guadalajara Chivas45%
Toluca29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Guadalajara Chivas creates 30% more chances
Season form · 147 home / 149 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Guadalajara Chivas ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.04 · 147 matches
Toluca away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 149 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.42 + Toluca defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48
Toluca attack 1.23 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Guadalajara Chivas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Leon
Tigres UANL
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
Club America
Necaxa
Pachuca
Club TijuanaToluca
Puebla
Santos Laguna
Lobos Buap
AtlasGuadalajara Chivas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Monarcas
Club Queretaro
VeracruzCruz AzulClub AmericaU.N.A.M. - PumasSantos LagunaMonterreyTigres UANLTolucaClub QueretaroMonarcasPachucaGuadalajara ChivasPueblaLobos BuapLeonClub TijuanaNecaxaAtlasVeracruzIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Guadalajara Chivas host Toluca on Sunday, 21 September 2025 at 01:07. The match is part of the Liga MX 2018/2019 season.
Liga MX: Guadalajara Chivas 0–3 Toluca
Toluca beat Guadalajara Chivas 3-0 in Liga MX on September 21, 2025.
Goals: Paulinho (21'), J. Gallardo (24'), A. Vega (56').
Guadalajara Chivas controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 19.
The match was played at Estadio Akron in Zapopan.