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Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca — Liga MX 2018

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Toluca
Toluca
7/7/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas45%
×Draw26%
Toluca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.48
Toluca
1.14

Guadalajara Chivas creates 30% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 149 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.42
Toluca
1.23

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.04
Toluca
1.54

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
71%
Guadalajara Chivas or Toluca
74%
Draw or Toluca
55%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
22%
Toluca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
77%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
43%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
19%
Toluca 1+ goals
68%
Toluca 2+ goals
32%
Toluca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
61%
Toluca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.04 · 147 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.42 + Toluca defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Toluca attack 1.23 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
45%
level
26%
Toluca scores more
29%

Guadalajara Chivas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 Toluca

Guadalajara Chivas and Toluca drew 0-0 in Liga MX on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio AKRON in Zapopan.