Toledo 1–1 AA Iguaçu: Result & Stats

Toledo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AA Iguaçu

Vitinho 90+1'

Maikinho 90+5'

5/25/2025

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal 14 de Dezembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Toledo39%

×Draw29%

AA Iguaçu32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToledoExpected goals in this matchAA Iguaçu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.03

Toledo

1.16

AA Iguaçu

1.03

Toledo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

0.75

creates per match

0.89

1.17

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Toledo

0.75

AA Iguaçu

0.89

allows per match

Toledo

1.17

AA Iguaçu

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

AA Iguaçu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Toledo or draw

68%

Toledo or AA Iguaçu

71%

Draw or AA Iguaçu

61%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+

16%

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals

69%

Toledo 2+ goals

32%

Toledo 3+ goals

11%

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals

64%

AA Iguaçu 2+ goals

28%

AA Iguaçu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)

55%

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

AA Iguaçu away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 0.75 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.16

AA Iguaçu attack 0.89 + Toledo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Toledo scores more

39%

level

29%

AA Iguaçu scores more

32%

Toledo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

90+1'

Vitinho

90+5'

Maikinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff