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Toledo vs AA Iguaçu — Paranaense - 2 2023

Toledo
Toledo
FT
3 – 1
AA Iguaçu
AA Iguaçu
4/20/2022Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal 14 de Dezembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Toledo39%
×Draw25%
AA Iguaçu36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toledo
1.43
AA Iguaçu
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Toledo
1.12
AA Iguaçu
1.40

allows per match

Toledo
1.35
AA Iguaçu
1.73

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par
AA Iguaçu+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

AA Iguaçu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Toledo or draw
64%
Toledo or AA Iguaçu
75%
Draw or AA Iguaçu
61%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+
18%
AA Iguaçu wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals
76%
Toledo 2+ goals
42%
Toledo 3+ goals
17%
AA Iguaçu 1+ goals
75%
AA Iguaçu 2+ goals
40%
AA Iguaçu 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)
52%
AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

AA Iguaçu away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 1.12 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

AA Iguaçu attack 1.40 + Toledo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Toledo scores more
39%
level
25%
AA Iguaçu scores more
36%

Toledo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Toledo 3–1 AA Iguaçu

Toledo beat AA Iguaçu 3-1 in Paranaense - 2 on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 14 de Dezembro in Toledo, Paraná.