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AA Iguaçu vs Toledo — Paranaense - 2 2023

AA Iguaçu
AA Iguaçu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Toledo
Toledo
Romao 41'
L. Schmidt 19'
Bruno Felipe 25'
5/21/2023Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

AA Iguaçu59%
×Draw24%
Toledo17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AA Iguaçu
1.71
Toledo
0.80

AA Iguaçu creates 114% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

AA Iguaçu
1.24
Toledo
0.50

allows per match

AA Iguaçu
1.10
Toledo
2.17

finishing

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par
Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguaçu ↓

Toledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AA Iguaçu or draw
83%
AA Iguaçu or Toledo
76%
Draw or Toledo
41%

Winning margin

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+
33%
Toledo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals
82%
AA Iguaçu 2+ goals
51%
AA Iguaçu 3+ goals
24%
Toledo 1+ goals
55%
Toledo 2+ goals
19%
Toledo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)
77%
Toledo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguaçu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Toledo away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguaçu attack 1.24 + Toledo defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Toledo attack 0.50 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

AA Iguaçu scores more
59%
level
24%
Toledo scores more
17%

AA Iguaçu at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "AA Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
L. Schmidt
25'
Bruno Felipe
41'
Romao

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AA Iguaçu vs Toledo

AA Iguaçu beat Toledo 2-1 in Paranaense - 2 on May 21, 2023.

Goals: L. Schmidt (19'), Bruno Felipe (25'), Romao (41').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira in União da Vitória, Paraná.