Tokushima Vortis 0–1 Kashiwa Reysol: Result & Stats

Tokushima Vortis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kashiwa Reysol

8/25/2021

J1 League · Round 26Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tokushima Vortis33%

×Draw28%

Kashiwa Reysol40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchKashiwa Reysol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.27

Tokushima Vortis

1.12

Kashiwa Reysol

1.27

Kashiwa Reysol creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 134 away

0.95

creates per match

1.28

1.26

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.95

Kashiwa Reysol

1.28

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.26

Kashiwa Reysol

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

60%

Tokushima Vortis or Kashiwa Reysol

72%

Draw or Kashiwa Reysol

67%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

13%

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

67%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

31%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

10%

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

72%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

36%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

45%

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.95 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.12

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.28 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

33%

level

28%

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

40%

Kashiwa Reysol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff