Kashiwa Reysol vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Kashiwa Reysol57%
Tokushima Vortis20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kashiwa Reysol creates 85% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 149 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kashiwa Reysol ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches
Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 149 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kashiwa Reysol attack 2.57 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.79
Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Kashiwa Reysol at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
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Omiya Ardija
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
Renofa Yamaguchi
Ventforet Kofu
Mito HollyhockTokushima Vortis
Montedio Yamagata
Kanazawa
JEF United Chiba
Fagiano Okayama
Albirex Niigata
Tochigi SC
Ehime FC
Kyoto Sanga
FC Gifu
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Kamatamare SanukiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kashiwa Reysol host Tokushima Vortis on Sunday, 12 May 2019 at 06:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
J2 League: Kashiwa Reysol 1–0 Tokushima Vortis
Kashiwa Reysol beat Tokushima Vortis 1-0 in J2 League on May 12, 2019.
Goals: M. Olunga (45').
The match was played at SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium (Kashiwa).