Tokushima Vortis 1–2 Kashiwa Reysol: Result & Stats

Tokushima Vortis

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kashiwa Reysol

M. Watai 61'

Y. Segawa 90'

J. Kamata 86'

7/13/2019

J2 League · Round 22Pocari Sweat Stadium (Naruto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tokushima Vortis32%

×Draw29%

Kashiwa Reysol39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchKashiwa Reysol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.19

Tokushima Vortis

1.06

Kashiwa Reysol

1.19

Kashiwa Reysol creates 12% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 21 away

1.31

creates per match

1.48

0.90

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.31

Kashiwa Reysol

1.48

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.90

Kashiwa Reysol

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

61%

Tokushima Vortis or Kashiwa Reysol

71%

Draw or Kashiwa Reysol

68%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

13%

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

65%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

29%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

9%

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

70%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

33%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

45%

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 147 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.48 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

32%

level

29%

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

39%

Kashiwa Reysol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Watai← T. Tamukai

46'

Y. Segawa← D. Kikuchi

47'

50'

61'

75'

77'

T. Akiyama← K. Kiyotake

83'

86'

87'

90'

Tokushima

Kashiwa

23

Nakamura

2

⚽

15

13

4

38

▼

Kikuchi

5

Kobayashi

10

Esaka

17

▼

9

26

21

3

5

7

2

▼

8

14

11

32

18

▼

Sato

13

▼

Kiyotake

Manager: Ricardo Rodríguez

46'▲M. Watai←▼T. Tamukai

77'▲T. Akiyama←▼K. Kiyotake

83'▲Y. Oshitani←▼A. Sato

Tokushima Vortis substitutes

16Watai26Akiyama47Oshitani9Kawata17Omotehara23Suzuki31Hasegawa

Manager: Nelsinho Baptista

46'▲Y. Segawa←▼D. Kikuchi

75'▲H. Otani←▼K. Tezuka

Kashiwa Reysol substitutes

18Segawa7Otani1Kirihata3Tagami19Gabriel24Miyamoto25Tanaka

J2 League: Tokushima Vortis 1–2 Kashiwa Reysol

Kashiwa Reysol beat Tokushima Vortis 2-1 in J2 League on July 13, 2019.

Goals: M. Watai (61'), J. Kamata (86'), Y. Segawa (90').

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium (Naruto).

Tokushima Vortis vs Kashiwa Reysol — J2 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

J2 League: Tokushima Vortis 1–2 Kashiwa Reysol