Todesfelde 1–0 Kilia Kiel: Result & Stats

Todesfelde

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kilia Kiel

4/12/2026

League #744 · Schleswig-Holstein - 25JODA Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Todesfelde44%

×Draw33%

Kilia Kiel23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TodesfeldeExpected goals in this matchKilia Kiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.67

Todesfelde

1.06

Kilia Kiel

0.67

Todesfelde creates 58% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

0.80

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Todesfelde

0.80

Kilia Kiel

0.33

allows per match

Todesfelde

1.00

Kilia Kiel

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Todesfelde+0.00on par

Kilia Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Todesfelde ↓

Kilia Kiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Todesfelde or draw

77%

Todesfelde or Kilia Kiel

67%

Draw or Kilia Kiel

56%

Winning margin

Todesfelde wins by 2+

18%

Kilia Kiel wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Todesfelde 1+ goals

65%

Todesfelde 2+ goals

29%

Todesfelde 3+ goals

9%

Kilia Kiel 1+ goals

49%

Kilia Kiel 2+ goals

15%

Kilia Kiel 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Todesfelde (draw refunded)

66%

Kilia Kiel (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Todesfelde at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Kilia Kiel away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Todesfelde attack 0.80 + Kilia Kiel defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kilia Kiel attack 0.33 + Todesfelde defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Todesfelde scores more

44%

level

33%

Kilia Kiel scores more

23%

Todesfelde at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Todesfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff