Kilia Kiel 3–3 Todesfelde: Result & Stats

Kilia Kiel

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Todesfelde

T. Wullner 64'

Y. Jakubowski 29', 24'

T. Weidemann 90+5'

M. Liebert 76'

M. Pajonk 45' (pen)

9/10/2022

League #744 · Schleswig-Holstein - 9Kunstrasenplatz Kilia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kilia Kiel25%

×Draw20%

Todesfelde56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kilia KielExpected goals in this matchTodesfelde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.32

Kilia Kiel

1.50

Todesfelde

2.32

Todesfelde creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

2.50

2.14

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kilia Kiel

2.00

Todesfelde

2.50

allows per match

Kilia Kiel

2.14

Todesfelde

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilia Kiel+0.00on par

Todesfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilia Kiel ↓

Todesfelde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Kilia Kiel or draw

44%

Kilia Kiel or Todesfelde

80%

Draw or Todesfelde

75%

Winning margin

Kilia Kiel wins by 2+

11%

Todesfelde wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Kilia Kiel 1+ goals

78%

Kilia Kiel 2+ goals

44%

Kilia Kiel 3+ goals

19%

Todesfelde 1+ goals

90%

Todesfelde 2+ goals

67%

Todesfelde 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Kilia Kiel (draw refunded)

31%

Todesfelde (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilia Kiel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Todesfelde away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilia Kiel attack 2.00 + Todesfelde defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Todesfelde attack 2.50 + Kilia Kiel defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kilia Kiel scores more

25%

level

20%

Todesfelde scores more

56%

Todesfelde at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Todesfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Y. Jakubowski

29'

Y. Jakubowski

45'

M. PajonkPenalty

64'

T. Wullner

76'

M. Liebert

90+5'

T. Weidemann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff