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Kilia Kiel vs Todesfelde — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kilia Kiel
Kilia Kiel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Todesfelde
Todesfelde
7/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kilia Kiel44%
×Draw21%
Todesfelde34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilia Kiel
2.00
Todesfelde
1.75

Kilia Kiel creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kilia Kiel
1.25
Todesfelde
1.50

allows per match

Kilia Kiel
2.00
Todesfelde
2.75

finishing

Kilia Kiel+0.00on par
Todesfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilia Kiel ↓

Todesfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kilia Kiel or draw
66%
Kilia Kiel or Todesfelde
79%
Draw or Todesfelde
56%

Winning margin

Kilia Kiel wins by 2+
25%
Todesfelde wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kilia Kiel 1+ goals
86%
Kilia Kiel 2+ goals
59%
Kilia Kiel 3+ goals
32%
Todesfelde 1+ goals
83%
Todesfelde 2+ goals
52%
Todesfelde 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kilia Kiel (draw refunded)
56%
Todesfelde (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilia Kiel at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Todesfelde away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilia Kiel attack 1.25 + Todesfelde defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Todesfelde attack 1.50 + Kilia Kiel defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kilia Kiel scores more
44%
level
21%
Todesfelde scores more
34%

Kilia Kiel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kilia Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Kilia
Todesfelde
N. Soranno
Manager: N. Soranno
B. Sörensen
Manager: B. Sörensen

Friendlies Clubs: Kilia Kiel 1–1 Todesfelde

Kilia Kiel and Todesfelde drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 14, 2026.