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Tigres UANL vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
O. Herrera 39'
Kenedy 88'
S. Rondon 79'
2/21/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tigres UANL57%
×Draw22%
CF Pachuca21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.92
CF Pachuca
1.08

Tigres UANL creates 78% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 35 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
2.35
CF Pachuca
1.43

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.74
CF Pachuca
1.49

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
79%
Tigres UANL or CF Pachuca
78%
Draw or CF Pachuca
43%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
33%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
85%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
57%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
30%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
66%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
29%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
73%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.74 · 23 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.35 + CF Pachuca defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.92

CF Pachuca attack 1.43 + Tigres UANL defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
57%
level
22%
CF Pachuca scores more
21%

Tigres UANL at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
O. HerreraTigres UANLTigres UANL · M
7.9

Match Events

18'
Vladimir Loroña
33'
Salomón RondónGoal cancelled
39'
O. Herrera↳ A. Correa
45+2'
Diego Lainez
49'
JoaquimCard upgrade
50'
Joaquim
55'
C. Araujo← O. Herrera
61'
L. Quinones← O. Idrissi
61'
E. Valencia← S. Rodriguez
67'
D. A. Sanchez Guevara← R. Aguirre
74'
V. Guzman← A. Dominguez
74'
Kenedy← A. Bautista
79'
S. Rondon↳ V. Guzman
83'
J. Brunetta← F. Gorriaran
88'
Kenedy↳ S. D. Barreto
90+4'
R. Lopez← C. Sanchez

Possession

57%Tigres

Shots

9Tigres

Pass accuracy

50%Tigres

Statistics

TigresCF
Overview
57%Possession43%
9Total Shots14
0.57Expected Goals (xG)0.92
3Corners5
7Fouls21
Shots
9Total Shots14
2On Target5
5Off Target6
2Blocked3
5Inside Box9
4Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
443Total Passes329
367Accurate Passes274
83%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
0.23Goals Prevented0.23
Discipline
7Fouls21
2Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Liga MX: Tigres UANL 1–2 CF Pachuca

CF Pachuca beat Tigres UANL 2-1 in Liga MX on February 21, 2026.

Goals: O. Herrera (39'), S. Rondon (79'), Kenedy (88').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in Monterrey.