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Tigres UANL vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
O. Herrera 72'
J. Brunetta 10'
E. Montiel 38'
10/27/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tigres UANL58%
×Draw22%
CF Pachuca20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.91
CF Pachuca
1.04

Tigres UANL creates 84% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
2.35
CF Pachuca
1.34

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.74
CF Pachuca
1.47

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
80%
Tigres UANL or CF Pachuca
78%
Draw or CF Pachuca
42%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
34%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
85%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
57%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
30%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
65%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
28%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
74%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.74 · 23 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.35 + CF Pachuca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.91

CF Pachuca attack 1.34 + Tigres UANL defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
58%
level
22%
CF Pachuca scores more
20%

Tigres UANL at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. BrunettaTigres UANLTigres UANL · M
8.0

Match Events

4'
Javier Aquino
10'
J. Brunetta
34'
Pedro Pedraza
38'
E. Montiel
42'
Owen González
60'
L. Rodríguez← C. Sánchez
69'
O. Herrera← J. Brunetta
70'
N. Ibáñez← A. Gignac
72'
O. Herrera↳ S. Córdova
77'
F. Gil← O. González
77'
S. Hernández← P. Pedraza
85'
D. Reyes← Rafael Carioca
86'
U. Antuna← D. Lainez
86'
A. Domínguez← O. Idrissi
86'
S. Aguayo← B. González
90+8'
Jesús Angulo
90+4'
Javier Aquino
90+4'
Javier Aquino
90+5'
J. Garza← S. Córdova

Possession

47%Tigres

Shots

13Tigres

Pass accuracy

50%Tigres

Statistics

TigresCF
Overview
47%Possession53%
13Total Shots15
2Corners7
18Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots15
3On Target4
7Off Target9
3Blocked2
7Inside Box8
6Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
418Total Passes451
324Accurate Passes346
78%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls16
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Tigres UANL vs CF Pachuca

Tigres UANL beat CF Pachuca 2-1 in Liga MX on October 27, 2024.

Goals: J. Brunetta (10'), E. Montiel (38'), O. Herrera (72').

CF Pachuca controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.