CF Pachuca 1–2 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tigres UANL

Kenedy 77'

D. Lainez 78'

J. Brunetta 59'

10/23/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

CF Pachuca45%

×Draw26%

Tigres UANL30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.18

CF Pachuca

1.50

Tigres UANL

1.18

CF Pachuca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

1.70

creates per match

1.30

1.06

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.70

Tigres UANL

1.30

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.06

Tigres UANL

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

70%

CF Pachuca or Tigres UANL

74%

Draw or Tigres UANL

55%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

22%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

78%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

44%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

19%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

69%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

33%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

60%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.70 + Tigres UANL defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tigres UANL attack 1.30 + CF Pachuca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

45%

level

26%

Tigres UANL scores more

30%

CF Pachuca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Brunetta

Tigres UANL · M

8.7

Match Events

15'

37'

42'

53'

59'

O. Herrera← D. A. Sanchez Guevara

59'

J. Brunetta

63'

W. Carvalho← P. Pedraza

63'

O. Idrissi← V. Guzman

65'

J. Garza← J. Aquino

68'

Marco Farfan

75'

J. Cadiz← E. Valencia

77'

Kenedy

78'

D. Lainez↳ Romulo

79'

Eduardo Bauermann

79'

Diego Lainez

82'

Marco FarfanCard upgrade

85'

Marco Farfan

85'

I. Hernandez← J. Berlanga

85'

G. Togni← Kenedy

87'

R. Guerrero← D. Lainez

90+11'

90+11'

90'

90+11'

90'

90+6'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFTigres

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots11

9Corners3

11Fouls17

Shots

20Total Shots11

5On Target8

10Off Target2

5Blocked1

5Inside Box6

15Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

445Total Passes394

380Accurate Passes321

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls17

5Yellow Cards7

2Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL

Tigres UANL beat CF Pachuca 2-1 in Liga MX on October 23, 2025.

Goals: J. Brunetta (59'), Kenedy (77'), D. Lainez (78').

CF Pachuca controlled possession (54%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.

CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL