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Tigres UANL vs Atletico San Luis — Liga MX 2024

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
Preview
01:00
Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
7/25/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Universitario
Big match
59%
Tigres UANL
model favours
59%22%19%
1–0
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tigres UANL59%
×Draw22%
Atletico San Luis19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.91
Atletico San Luis
0.97

Tigres UANL creates 97% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 36 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.95
Atletico San Luis
1.22

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.73
Atletico San Luis
1.86

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Atletico San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
81%
Tigres UANL or Atletico San Luis
78%
Draw or Atletico San Luis
41%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
35%
Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
85%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
57%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
30%
Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
62%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
25%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
76%
Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.73 · 41 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.95 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.91

Atletico San Luis attack 1.22 + Tigres UANL defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
59%
level
22%
Atletico San Luis scores more
19%

Tigres UANL at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
UANL
LDLWW
Luis
WWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tigres UANL host Atletico San Luis

July 25, 2026: Tigres UANL take on Atletico San Luis in Liga MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tigres UANL host Atletico San Luis at Estadio Universitario.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.