Atletico San Luis 1–3 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

Atletico San Luis

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Tigres UANL

S. Salles-Lamonge 44'

F. Gorriarán 86'

G. Pizarro 58'

D. Lainez 15'

1/11/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Atletico San Luis34%

×Draw26%

Tigres UANL40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico San LuisExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.37

Atletico San Luis

1.25

Tigres UANL

1.37

Tigres UANL creates 10% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 157 away

1.36

creates per match

1.25

1.49

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Atletico San Luis

1.36

Tigres UANL

1.25

allows per match

Atletico San Luis

1.49

Tigres UANL

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw

60%

Atletico San Luis or Tigres UANL

74%

Draw or Tigres UANL

66%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

15%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

71%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

36%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

13%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

75%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

40%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

46%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 123 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.36 + Tigres UANL defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tigres UANL attack 1.25 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more

34%

level

26%

Tigres UANL scores more

40%

Tigres UANL at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Joaquim

Tigres UANL · D

8.3

Match Events

15'

D. Lainez↳ Joaquim

44'

S. Salles-Lamonge↳ J. Sanabria

45+7'

Yan Phillipe

45+5'

Andrés SánchezCard upgrade

58'

G. Pizarro↳ J. Garza

65'

D. Guillén← A. Cruz

65'

J. Murillo← B. Galdames

71'

U. Antuna← M. Flores

71'

A. Gignac← N. Ibáñez

71'

S. Córdova← J. Brunetta

78'

L. Nájera← Ó. Macías

86'

O. Herrera← D. Lainez

86'

F. Gorriarán

87'

L. Cañamar← C. Piccini

87'

J. Villal← S. Salles-Lamonge

89'

B. Parra← F. Gorriarán

90+3'

André-Pierre Gignac

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoTigres

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots14

6Corners5

11Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots14

6On Target6

2Off Target4

4Blocked4

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

479Total Passes490

389Accurate Passes413

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1