Atletico San Luis 3–0 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

Atletico San Luis

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tigres UANL

Vitinho 64'

Léo Bonatini 60'

Joaquim 35' (OG)

11/29/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Atletico San Luis34%

×Draw26%

Tigres UANL40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico San LuisExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.37

Atletico San Luis

1.25

Tigres UANL

1.37

Tigres UANL creates 10% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 157 away

1.36

creates per match

1.25

1.49

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Atletico San Luis

1.36

Tigres UANL

1.25

allows per match

Atletico San Luis

1.49

Tigres UANL

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw

60%

Atletico San Luis or Tigres UANL

74%

Draw or Tigres UANL

66%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

15%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

71%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

36%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

13%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

75%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

40%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

46%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 123 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.36 + Tigres UANL defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tigres UANL attack 1.25 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more

34%

level

26%

Tigres UANL scores more

40%

Tigres UANL at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Sánchez

Atletico San Luis · G

8.6

Match Events

35'

JoaquimOwn goal

60'

Léo Bonatini↳ Vitinho

61'

J. Güémez← S. Salles-Lamonge

61'

L. Nájera← Léo Bonatini

62'

S. Córdova← D. Lainez

62'

O. Herrera← U. Antuna

64'

73'

77'

77'

81'

D. Guillén← J. Domínguez

83'

J. Garza← N. Ibáñez

85'

Joaquim

89'

Fernando Gorriarán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoTigres

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots21

2Corners11

9Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots21

4On Target7

2Off Target11

1Blocked3

3Inside Box15

4Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

457Total Passes479

384Accurate Passes402

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1