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Tigres UANL vs Atletico San Luis — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
11/4/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Tigres UANL54%
×Draw23%
Atletico San Luis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.78
Atletico San Luis
1.05

Tigres UANL creates 70% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 124 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.83
Atletico San Luis
1.19

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Atletico San Luis
1.73

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Atletico San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
78%
Tigres UANL or Atletico San Luis
77%
Draw or Atletico San Luis
46%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
30%
Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
83%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
53%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
26%
Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
65%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
28%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
71%
Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 161 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.83 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.78

Atletico San Luis attack 1.19 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
54%
level
23%
Atletico San Luis scores more
22%

Tigres UANL at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Tigres UANL 2–2 Atletico San Luis

Tigres UANL and Atletico San Luis drew 2-2 in Liga MX on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.