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Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2026

Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
A. Quiles 56'
Guilherme Schettine 42' (pen)
Rafael Ratao 90' (pen), 81'
Zhu Chenjie 45'
4/5/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4TEDA Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Tianjin Teda35%
×Draw24%
Shanghai Shenhua41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Teda
1.42
Shanghai Shenhua
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tianjin Teda
1.35
Shanghai Shenhua
1.85

allows per match

Tianjin Teda
1.25
Shanghai Shenhua
1.48

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.11scores more
Shanghai Shenhua-0.42scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw
59%
Tianjin Teda or Shanghai Shenhua
76%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
65%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
16%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
76%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
41%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
17%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
79%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
46%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
46%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.35 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.85 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more
35%
level
24%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
41%

Shanghai Shenhua at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Rafael RataoShanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua · M
8.3

Match Events

40'
Fan YangPenalty confirmed
42'
Guilherme SchettinePenalty
45'
Zhu Chenjie↳ Gao Tianyi
56'
A. Quiles
60'
Fan Yang
64'
Xie Pengfei← M. Gueye
64'
Wang Haijian← L. Ke
73'
Ji Shengpan← Guilherme Schettine
78'
Chengyu Liu
79'
Yang Zexiang← Wu Xi
79'
Yang Haoyu← Gao Tianyi
80'
Wang Qiuming← Guo Hao
81'
Rafael Ratao↳ Xie Pengfei
90+6'
Rafael Ratão
90+2'
Wang Zhenghao← Huang Jiahui
90+2'
J. Liu← Xadas
90+3'
Xu Haoyang← Liu Chengyu
90'
Rafael RataoPenalty

Possession

49%Tianjin

Shots

13Tianjin

Pass accuracy

50%Tianjin

Statistics

TianjinShanghai
Overview
49%Possession51%
13Total Shots19
2.31Expected Goals (xG)1.75
7Corners9
9Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots19
5On Target4
3Off Target10
5Blocked5
6Inside Box14
7Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
377Total Passes389
297Accurate Passes307
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Super League: Tianjin Teda 2–3 Shanghai Shenhua

Shanghai Shenhua beat Tianjin Teda 3-2 in Super League on April 5, 2026.

Goals: Guilherme Schettine (42' pen), Zhu Chenjie (45'), A. Quiles (56'), Rafael Ratao (81', 90' pen).

Shanghai Shenhua controlled possession (51%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at TEDA Football Stadium in Tianjin.