Tianjin Teda 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua: Result & Stats

Tianjin Teda

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

5/11/2024

Super League · Round 11TEDA Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Tianjin Teda35%

×Draw24%

Shanghai Shenhua41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin TedaExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.55

Tianjin Teda

1.42

Shanghai Shenhua

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.35

creates per match

1.85

1.25

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Tianjin Teda

1.35

Shanghai Shenhua

1.85

allows per match

Tianjin Teda

1.25

Shanghai Shenhua

1.48

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.11scores more

Shanghai Shenhua-0.42scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw

59%

Tianjin Teda or Shanghai Shenhua

76%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

65%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

16%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

76%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

41%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

17%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

79%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

46%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

46%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.35 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.85 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more

35%

level

24%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

41%

Shanghai Shenhua at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Fang Jingqi

Tianjin Teda · G

7.9

Match Events

41'

Qiuming Wang

46'

Yu Hanchao← Dai Wai-Tsun

47'

Ibrahim Amadou

57'

Wang Haijian← I. Amadou

63'

Xi Wu

67'

I. Fiolić← Guo Hao

67'

A. Compagno← Xie Weijun

67'

Shi Yan← Ba Dun

70'

Wilson Manafá← Gao Tianyi

70'

Cao Yunding← Xie Pengfei

82'

Wang Zhenghao← Huang Jiahui

90+1'

Yu Yang← Wang Qiuming

90+7'

Zhou Junchen← Xu Haoyang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TianjinShanghai

Overview

39%Possession61%

2Total Shots13

0.12Expected Goals (xG)1.14

2Corners4

9Fouls15

Shots

2Total Shots13

0On Target4

1Off Target6

1Blocked3

1Inside Box7

1Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

398Total Passes604

321Accurate Passes535

81%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1