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Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda — Super League 2026

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
Andre Luis 90'
Jiang Shenglong 45'
Chan Shinichi 42'
6/25/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua65%
×Draw19%
Tianjin Teda16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
2.21
Tianjin Teda
1.00

Shanghai Shenhua creates 121% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
2.49
Tianjin Teda
0.93

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.07
Tianjin Teda
1.94

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.18scores more
Tianjin Teda+0.07on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Tianjin Teda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
84%
Shanghai Shenhua or Tianjin Teda
81%
Draw or Tianjin Teda
35%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
41%
Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
89%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
65%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
38%
Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
63%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
26%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
80%
Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.94 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.49 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.21

Tianjin Teda attack 0.93 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
65%
level
19%
Tianjin Teda scores more
16%

Shanghai Shenhua at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
Gao TianyiShanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua · M
8.7

Match Events

42'
Chan Shinichi
45+2'
Hao Guo
45'
Jiang Shenglong↳ Gao Tianyi
50'
A. Ademi← Yang Fan
50'
Xie Weijun← Sun Ming-Him
57'
Yang Haoyu← J. Teixeira
67'
Huang Jiahui← Guo Hao
67'
Su Yuanjie← Ba Dun
73'
Xu Haoyang← Liu Chengyu
73'
Wang Haijian← Gao Tianyi
79'
J. Liu← Wang Qiuming
88'
I. Amadou← Wu Xi
89'
Xue Qinghao
90'
Andre Luis

Possession

56%Shanghai

Shots

21Shanghai

Pass accuracy

52%Shanghai

Statistics

ShanghaiTianjin
Overview
56%Possession44%
21Total Shots8
1.58Expected Goals (xG)0.42
10Corners6
15Fouls10
Shots
21Total Shots8
6On Target3
7Off Target3
8Blocked2
11Inside Box4
10Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
442Total Passes345
377Accurate Passes271
85%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Super League: Shanghai Shenhua 3–0 Tianjin Teda

Shanghai Shenhua beat Tianjin Teda 3-0 in Super League on June 25, 2025.

Goals: Chan Shinichi (42'), Jiang Shenglong (45'), Andre Luis (90').

Shanghai Shenhua controlled possession (56%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.