Tianjin Teda 0–1 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Tianjin Teda

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Beijing Guoan

Cao Yongjing 51'

4/30/2024

Super League · Round 9TEDA Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Tianjin Teda42%

×Draw25%

Beijing Guoan34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin TedaExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.37

Tianjin Teda

1.56

Beijing Guoan

1.37

Tianjin Teda creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

1.64

creates per match

1.56

1.18

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Tianjin Teda

1.64

Beijing Guoan

1.56

allows per match

Tianjin Teda

1.18

Beijing Guoan

1.48

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Tianjin Teda-0.20scores less

Beijing Guoan+0.35scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw

66%

Tianjin Teda or Beijing Guoan

75%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

58%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

21%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

79%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

46%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

21%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

75%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

40%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

56%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.64 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Beijing Guoan attack 1.56 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more

42%

level

25%

Beijing Guoan scores more

34%

Tianjin Teda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

Hou Sen

Beijing Guoan · G

8.9

Match Events

17'

Sen HouCard upgrade

19'

Yuan Zhang

30'

Zhenghao Wang

46'

Ming Tian← Wang Zhenghao

46'

Ba Dun← Su Yuanjie

51'

Cao Yongjing↳ S. Adegbenro

56'

Wang Qiuming← Guo Hao

56'

A. Ademi← Shi Yan

59'

Guga← Yu Dabao

61'

Tian Ming

61'

Mile Škorić

65'

Zhang Xizhe← Fábio Abreu

65'

Bai Yang← Cao Yongjing

80'

Liu Junxian← Yang Zihao

82'

Wang Ziming← S. Adegbenro

90+6'

Ziming Wang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TianjinBeijing

Overview

58%Possession42%

33Total Shots7

2.16Expected Goals (xG)0.97

12Corners8

13Fouls7

Shots

33Total Shots7

8On Target2

15Off Target4

10Blocked1

20Inside Box5

13Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

445Total Passes342

398Accurate Passes271

89%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

13Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0