Beijing Guoan 2–2 Tianjin Teda: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tianjin Teda

F. Abreu 70'

Dawhan 43'

A. Quiles 52', 21'

8/3/2025

Super League · Round 19Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Beijing Guoan57%

×Draw21%

Tianjin Teda22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchTianjin Teda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.19

Beijing Guoan

2.04

Tianjin Teda

1.19

Beijing Guoan creates 71% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

2.08

creates per match

1.14

1.23

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.08

Tianjin Teda

1.14

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.23

Tianjin Teda

2.01

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.20scores more

Tianjin Teda+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Tianjin Teda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

78%

Beijing Guoan or Tianjin Teda

79%

Draw or Tianjin Teda

43%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

34%

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

87%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

60%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

33%

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

70%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

33%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

72%

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.23 · 29 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.08 + Tianjin Teda defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.04

Tianjin Teda attack 1.14 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

57%

level

21%

Tianjin Teda scores more

22%

Beijing Guoan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Serginho

Beijing Guoan · M

8.2

Match Events

21'

A. Quiles↳ Xadas

30'

Guo Hao← C. Salvador

43'

Dawhan↳ Serginho

46'

Wang Qiuming← Huang Jiahui

52'

A. Quiles

55'

Yang Zihao← Sun Ming-Him

69'

Cao Yongjing← Fan Shuangjie

69'

N. Muhmet← Lin Liangming

70'

F. Abreu↳ N. Muhmet

71'

Li Yongjia← Xie Weijun

71'

Su Yuanjie← Ba Dun

73'

Zhongguo Chi

75'

Guga← Chi Zhongguo

76'

Bai Yang← Feng Boxuan

86'

Fang Hao← Serginho

86'

Yang Liyu← Li Lei

86'

J. Liu← A. Ademi

90+8'

Yan Bingliang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeijingTianjin

Overview

73%Possession27%

20Total Shots5

1.51Expected Goals (xG)1.85

14Corners0

15Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots5

8On Target3

5Off Target2

7Blocked0

16Inside Box2

4Outside Box3

Passing

73%Possession27%

634Total Passes243

551Accurate Passes172

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4