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Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda — Super League 2026

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
Zhang Yuan 90+8'
Guga 67'
7/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Beijing Guoan57%
×Draw21%
Tianjin Teda21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
2.02
Tianjin Teda
1.15

Beijing Guoan creates 76% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.04
Tianjin Teda
1.14

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.17
Tianjin Teda
2.01

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.25scores more
Tianjin Teda+0.12scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Tianjin Teda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
79%
Beijing Guoan or Tianjin Teda
79%
Draw or Tianjin Teda
43%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
34%
Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
87%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
60%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
33%
Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
68%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
32%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
73%
Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 31 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.04 + Tianjin Teda defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.02

Tianjin Teda attack 1.14 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
57%
level
21%
Tianjin Teda scores more
21%

Beijing Guoan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
Li LeiBeijing GuoanBeijing Guoan · D
8.5

Match Events

45+2'
Li Ke
55'
Zhang Yuan← Li Ke
66'
Yang Liyu← Lin Liangming
67'
Guga
72'
Sun Xuelong← Guo Hao
72'
Xie Weijun← Ba Dun
85'
Wang Xianjun← Huang Jiahui
85'
Liu Junxian← Su Yuanjie
87'
Bai Yang← Zhang Yuning
87'
Wang Ziming← Fábio Abreu
87'
Cao Yongjing← Guga
87'
Wang Zhenghao← M. Škorić
90+8'
Zhang Yuan↳ Yang Liyu

Possession

50%Beijing

Shots

14Beijing

Pass accuracy

49%Beijing

Statistics

BeijingTianjin
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots11
1.44Expected Goals (xG)1.66
4Corners5
10Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots11
7On Target3
4Off Target4
3Blocked4
8Inside Box9
6Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
448Total Passes441
384Accurate Passes386
86%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda

Beijing Guoan beat Tianjin Teda 2-0 in Super League on July 21, 2024.

Goals: Guga (67'), Zhang Yuan (90+8').

Beijing Guoan controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Workers' Stadium in Beijing.