Throttur Reykjavik 2–4 Grindavik: Result & Stats

Throttur Reykjavik

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Grindavik

J. Sigurðsson 90'

E. Blöndal 45+2'

B. Hermannsson 73', 42' (pen)

A. Róbertsson 69'

Á. Finnbogason 12'

5/18/2025

1. Deild · Round 3AVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Throttur Reykjavik53%

×Draw21%

Grindavik26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Throttur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.52

Throttur Reykjavik

2.21

Grindavik

1.52

Throttur Reykjavik creates 45% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 30 away

2.05

creates per match

1.50

1.55

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Throttur Reykjavik

2.05

Grindavik

1.50

allows per match

Throttur Reykjavik

1.55

Grindavik

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Throttur Reykjavik ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Throttur Reykjavik or draw

74%

Throttur Reykjavik or Grindavik

79%

Draw or Grindavik

47%

Winning margin

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

32%

Grindavik wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

89%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

65%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

38%

Grindavik 1+ goals

78%

Grindavik 2+ goals

45%

Grindavik 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

67%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Throttur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Throttur Reykjavik attack 2.05 + Grindavik defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.21

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

53%

level

21%

Grindavik scores more

26%

Throttur Reykjavik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

S. Gudmundsson

12'

Á. Finnbogason

22'

H. Thorhallsson

35'

A. Robertsson

42'

L. Jeffs

42'

B. HermannssonPenalty

45+2'

E. Blöndal

46'

B. Haraldsson← E. Einarsson

65'

J. Sigurðsson← V. Steinarsson

65'

V. Sigurðsson← L. Jeffs

65'

S. Ásgeirsson← Á. Finnbogason

68'

69'

73'

77'

79'

K. Guðbergsson← N. Þórhallsson

79'

V. Hafþórsson← B. Harðarson

80'

L. Ólafsson← K. Pálsson

89'

E. Rúnarsson← B. Hermannsson

89'

F. Guðmundsson← I. Sigurðsson

90'

F. F. Gudmundsson

90+6'

V. Sigurdsson

90+7'

S. Asgeirsson

90'

J. Sigurðsson

Throttur

Grindavik

⚽2

▼

Hermannss

Heimisson

▼

Sigurðsso

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Ólafsson

46'▲B. Haraldsson←▼E. Einarsson

65'▲J. Sigurðsson←▼V. Steinarsson

65'▲V. Sigurðsson←▼L. Jeffs

79'▲K. Guðbergsson←▼N. Þórhallsson

79'▲V. Hafþórsson←▼B. Harðarson

Throttur Reykjavik substitutes

HaraldssonSigurðssonSigurðssonGuðbergssonHafþórssonJónssonStefánsson

Manager: H. Hródmarsson

65'▲S. Ásgeirsson←▼Á. Finnbogason

80'▲L. Ólafsson←▼K. Pálsson

89'▲E. Rúnarsson←▼B. Hermannsson

89'▲F. Guðmundsson←▼I. Sigurðsson

Grindavik substitutes

ÁsgeirssonÓlafssonRúnarssonGuðmundssonJúlíussonÞorfinnssonSigurjónsson

Match Recap: Throttur Reykjavik vs Grindavik

Grindavik beat Throttur Reykjavik 4-2 in 1. Deild on May 18, 2025.

Goals: Á. Finnbogason (12'), B. Hermannsson (42' pen, 73'), E. Blöndal (45+2'), A. Róbertsson (69'), J. Sigurðsson (90').

The match was played at AVIS völlurinn in Reykjavík.

Throttur Reykjavik vs Grindavik — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Throttur Reykjavik vs Grindavik