Grindavik 2–2 Throttur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Grindavik

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Throttur Reykjavik

E. Ingvarsson 71'

Á. Finnbogason 6'

K. Kristjánsson 33' (pen)

U. Ingvarsson 12'

8/29/2024

1. Deild · Round 20Stakkavíkurvöllur-Safamýri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Grindavik32%

×Draw22%

Throttur Reykjavik47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrindavikExpected goals in this matchThrottur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

2.00

Grindavik

1.62

Throttur Reykjavik

2.00

Throttur Reykjavik creates 23% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

1.50

creates per match

1.87

2.14

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Grindavik

1.50

Throttur Reykjavik

1.87

allows per match

Grindavik

2.14

Throttur Reykjavik

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

Throttur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw

53%

Grindavik or Throttur Reykjavik

78%

Draw or Throttur Reykjavik

68%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+

15%

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals

80%

Grindavik 2+ goals

48%

Grindavik 3+ goals

22%

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

86%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

59%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)

40%

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

Throttur Reykjavik away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.62

Throttur Reykjavik attack 1.87 + Grindavik defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Grindavik scores more

32%

level

22%

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

47%

Throttur Reykjavik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Á. Finnbogason

12'

U. Ingvarsson

19'

Éric Vales← Á. Finnbogason

33'

E. Vales

33'

K. KristjánssonPenalty

35'

M. Turkus

71'

E. Ingvarsson

73'

K. Yaroshenko← H. Þórhallsson

73'

S. Björnsson← L. Jeffs

79'

K. Konráðsson← Ion Perelló

89'

H. Thorhallsson

Grindavik

Throttur

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Finnbogas

Alexander

Gunnarsso

Manager: B. Gunnarsson

19'▲Éric Vales←▼Á. Finnbogason

79'▲K. Konráðsson←▼Ion Perelló

Grindavik substitutes

ValesKonráðssonGunnarssonHávarðarsonHelgasonMalheiroJúlíusson

Manager: S. Ólafsson

73'▲K. Yaroshenko←▼H. Þórhallsson

73'▲S. Björnsson←▼L. Jeffs

Throttur Reykjavik substitutes

YaroshenkoBjörnssonBjörnssonHarðarsonGuðbergssonGuðnasonHafþórsson

Match Recap: Grindavik vs Throttur Reykjavik

Grindavik and Throttur Reykjavik drew 2-2 in 1. Deild on August 29, 2024.

Goals: Á. Finnbogason (6'), U. Ingvarsson (12'), K. Kristjánsson (33' pen), E. Ingvarsson (71').

The match was played at Stakkavíkurvöllur-Safamýri in Reykjavík.

Grindavik vs Throttur Reykjavik — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Grindavik vs Throttur Reykjavik