Throttur Reykjavik 3–2 Grindavik: Result & Stats

Throttur Reykjavik

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Grindavik

J. Sigurdsson 73'

K. Kristjansson 41' (pen)

A. Ingason 9'

A. Robertsson 27' (pen), 14'

2/8/2025

League #168 · Group Stage - 1AVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Throttur Reykjavik68%

×Draw17%

Grindavik15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Throttur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

1.25

Throttur Reykjavik

2.73

Grindavik

1.25

Throttur Reykjavik creates 118% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

2.25

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Throttur Reykjavik

2.25

Grindavik

1.00

allows per match

Throttur Reykjavik

1.50

Grindavik

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Throttur Reykjavik ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Throttur Reykjavik or draw

85%

Throttur Reykjavik or Grindavik

83%

Draw or Grindavik

32%

Winning margin

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

47%

Grindavik wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

93%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

75%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

50%

Grindavik 1+ goals

71%

Grindavik 2+ goals

36%

Grindavik 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

81%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Throttur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Throttur Reykjavik attack 2.25 + Grindavik defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.73

Grindavik attack 1.00 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

68%

level

17%

Grindavik scores more

15%

Throttur Reykjavik at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Ingason

14'

A. Robertsson

26'

V. Steinarsson

27'

A. RobertssonPenalty

29'

H. Thorhallsson

32'

B. Hardarson

33'

A. Robertsson← A. Hammer

36'

B. Hermannsson

39'

V. Hafthorsson← V. Hafthorsson

41'

A. Ulfarsson

41'

K. KristjanssonPenalty

46'

B. D. Oddgeirsson← B. D. Oddgeirsson

46'

J. Sigurdsson← J. Sigurdsson

46'

D. Thrastarson← D. Thrastarson

56'

B. Haraldsson← B. Haraldsson

58'

F. F. Gudmundsson← F. F. Gudmundsson

63'

S. S. Asgeirsson

67'

E. Runarsson← E. Runarsson

70'

A. Heimisson

73'

J. Sigurdsson

76'

S. Stefansson← S. Stefansson

82'

V. Hauksson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff