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Throttur Reykjavik vs Fjolnir — League #168 2026

Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
Unknown 90', 81', 34'
Unknown 11'
2/14/2025League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 2AVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Throttur Reykjavik29%
×Draw20%
Fjolnir50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Throttur Reykjavik
1.72
Fjolnir
2.28

Fjolnir creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Throttur Reykjavik
2.11
Fjolnir
3.00

allows per match

Throttur Reykjavik
1.56
Fjolnir
1.33

finishing

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Throttur Reykjavik ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Throttur Reykjavik or draw
50%
Throttur Reykjavik or Fjolnir
80%
Draw or Fjolnir
71%

Winning margin

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+
14%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals
82%
Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals
51%
Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals
25%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
90%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
66%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
37%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Throttur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Throttur Reykjavik attack 2.11 + Fjolnir defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Fjolnir attack 3.00 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Throttur Reykjavik scores more
29%
level
20%
Fjolnir scores more
50%

Fjolnir at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
34'
67'
73'
81'
83'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Throttur Reykjavik vs Fjolnir

Throttur Reykjavik beat Fjolnir 3-1 in League #168 on February 14, 2025.

Goals: ? (11', 34', 81', 90').

The match was played at AVIS völlurinn in Reykjavík.