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Fjolnir vs Throttur Reykjavik — 1. Deild 2026

Fjolnir
Fjolnir
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik
A. Sigursteinsson 32'
H. Thorhallsson 82'
L. Jeffs 50'
8/29/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 20Egilshöll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fjolnir33%
×Draw22%
Throttur Reykjavik45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjolnir
1.62
Throttur Reykjavik
1.92

Throttur Reykjavik creates 19% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Fjolnir
1.67
Throttur Reykjavik
1.90

allows per match

Fjolnir
1.95
Throttur Reykjavik
1.57

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par
Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Throttur Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw
55%
Fjolnir or Throttur Reykjavik
78%
Draw or Throttur Reykjavik
67%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+
16%
Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals
80%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
48%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
22%
Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals
85%
Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals
57%
Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)
42%
Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

Throttur Reykjavik away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.67 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Throttur Reykjavik attack 1.90 + Fjolnir defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fjolnir scores more
33%
level
22%
Throttur Reykjavik scores more
45%

Throttur Reykjavik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
H. Thorhallsson
32'
A. Sigursteinsson
46'
V. Sigurdsson← V. Sigurdsson
50'
L. Jeffs
62'
B. Stefansson
63'
J. Ingason← J. Ingason
71'
V. Hafthorsson← U. Ingvarsson
71'
N. Thorhallsson← K. Gudbergsson
74'
B. T. Hafstein← B. T. Hafstein
82'
H. Thorhallsson
83'
B. Gudjonsson← A. Sigursteinsson
83'
O. Thorhalsson← O. Thorhalsson
90+2'
L. Jeffs

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs Throttur Reykjavik

Throttur Reykjavik beat Fjolnir 2-1 in 1. Deild on August 29, 2025.

Goals: A. Sigursteinsson (32'), L. Jeffs (50'), H. Thorhallsson (82').

The match was played at Egilshöll in Reykjavík.