Fjolnir 3–1 Throttur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Fjolnir

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Throttur Reykjavik

M. Hilmarsson 72' (pen)

A. Harðarson 58'

G. Guðmundsson 51'

Izaro Abella 74'

5/23/2024

1. Deild · Round 4Egilshöll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fjolnir36%

×Draw22%

Throttur Reykjavik42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchThrottur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.87

Fjolnir

1.74

Throttur Reykjavik

1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.74

creates per match

1.87

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Fjolnir

1.74

Throttur Reykjavik

1.87

allows per match

Fjolnir

1.87

Throttur Reykjavik

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Throttur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

58%

Fjolnir or Throttur Reykjavik

78%

Draw or Throttur Reykjavik

64%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

18%

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

82%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

52%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

25%

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

85%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

56%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

47%

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Throttur Reykjavik away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.74 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.74

Throttur Reykjavik attack 1.87 + Fjolnir defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fjolnir scores more

36%

level

22%

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

42%

Throttur Reykjavik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

T. Gudmundsson

36'

I. Ivarsson

42'

V. Hjálmarsson← D. Hilmarsson

51'

V. Sigurðsson← Crístofer

51'

G. Guðmundsson

58'

A. Harðarson

64'

Izaro Abella← Í. Ívarsson

64'

K. Kristjánsson← K. Yaroshenko

72'

B. Hafstein← D. Axelsson

72'

M. HilmarssonPenalty

74'

Izaro Abella

76'

S. Bjornsson

87'

J. Arnarsson← D. Ingvarsson

87'

S. Sigmarsson← M. Hilmarsson

Fjolnir

Throttur

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

42'▲V. Hjálmarsson←▼D. Hilmarsson

72'▲B. Hafstein←▼D. Axelsson

87'▲J. Arnarsson←▼D. Ingvarsson

87'▲S. Sigmarsson←▼M. Hilmarsson

Fjolnir substitutes

HjálmarssonHafsteinArnarssonSigmarssonJörgenssonHarðarsonSigursteinsson

Manager: S. Ólafsson

51'▲V. Sigurðsson←▼Crístofer

64'▲Izaro Abella←▼Í. Ívarsson

64'▲K. Kristjánsson←▼K. Yaroshenko

Throttur Reykjavik substitutes

SigurðssonAbellaKristjánssonHarðarsonGuðnasonHafþórssonSteinarsson

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs Throttur Reykjavik

Fjolnir beat Throttur Reykjavik 3-1 in 1. Deild on May 23, 2024.

Goals: G. Guðmundsson (51'), A. Harðarson (58'), M. Hilmarsson (72' pen), Izaro Abella (74').

The match was played at Egilshöll in Reykjavík.

Fjolnir vs Throttur Reykjavik — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs Throttur Reykjavik